One year into the COVID-19 pandemic, the St. Louis area could be months away from reaching herd immunity.
That’s based on estimates from the Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force, which us using the current vaccination rate to cast predictions.
Seventy-five % of adults would have to be vaccinated to reach that benchmark. At this rate — of about 77,000 first-dose shots each week — herd immunity should happen around June 20, KSDK reported Tuesday (March 30).
Dr. Alex Garza, who leads the task force, explained that health experts also consider COVID-19 exposures and other factors, but vaccination rates are a “true marker” of herd immunity, KSDK noted.
To date, St. Louis has tracked more than 20,500 confirmed cases of COVID-19. The city notes an 8.6% positivity rate, according to Monday’s data (March 29), the latest available as of Tuesday afternoon.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention defines herd immunity — or community immunity — as a “situation in which a sufficient proportion of a population is immune to an infectious disease (through vaccination and/or prior illness) to make its spread from person to person unlikely. Even individuals not vaccinated (such as newborns and those with chronic illnesses) are offered some protection because the disease has little opportunity to spread within the community.”
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